Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
